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According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin is experiencing a notable shift in holder behavior as recent data highlights a growing trend of short-term investors exiting positions at a loss. This movement has sparked discussions regarding a potential market capitulation, a phase where selling pressure peaks before a potential reversal.
Short-term sell pressure and exchange flows
Data from CryptoQuant reveals that roughly 50,000 BTC were moved to exchanges by short-term holders at a loss over a 24-hour period. This represents the largest loss-to-exchange flow recorded since June 4. Notably, Binance alone received approximately 9,500 BTC under these conditions, reaching its highest level for such activity since early June. These metrics suggest that newer market entrants are reacting to downward price action by offloading their assets.
The stress in the market is further evidenced by the realized market cap of coins held by investors who purchased Bitcoin within the last 155 days. Currently, the market value for this cohort sits below its realized value, a pattern that previously appeared during the October 2024 correction before aligning with a significant price bottom.
Long-term accumulation vs. macro headwinds
Despite the immediate sell-side pressure, long-term holders appear to be providing a stabilizing force for the asset. Bitcoin inflows into accumulation addresses reached a record 181,000 BTC on Thursday, nearly doubling the previous high of 94,700 BTC set in February 2022. This suggests that while retail or short-term traders are exiting, larger entities with little spending history are securing supply.
However, broader economic factors continue to weigh on the sentiment:
- The Coinbase Premium Index has remained below zero for 40 consecutive days, indicating a persistent discount and heavy selling from professional investors.
- US headline PCE inflation reached 4.1%, exceeding expectations and dampening hopes for immediate monetary easing.
- GDP growth of 2.1% further suggests that the Federal Reserve may maintain a hawkish stance on interest rates.
- Crypto exchange-traded products have seen continued outflows as financial conditions tighten globally.
Market analyst Darkfost noted that the current dynamic reflects an unfavorable macro backdrop for risk assets like Bitcoin. While short-term volatility remains high, the divergence between exit flows and record accumulation suggests a complex redistribution of ownership across the network.