EVERYTHING
According to Intellectia, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has fundamentally altered the global energy landscape since military actions began on February 28, 2026. This critical waterway typically handles one-fifth of all global oil shipments, and its effective shutdown has created a massive supply shock that is reverberating through international commodity markets.
Oil Market Volatility and Supply Constraints
The immediate market reaction to the conflict saw Brent crude prices jump by 10% to 13% within the first week of March. By May 2026, prices reached a peak of $107 per barrel before stabilizing in the high $80s and low $90s range. While some moderation has occurred due to diplomatic efforts, the risk of prices returning to triple digits remains significant if maritime security does not improve.
Several factors contribute to this sustained price pressure:
- The total blockage of primary shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Drone attacks targeting major refinery infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
- A scramble by importing nations to secure non-Middle Eastern supply sources.
- Potential demand destruction as high energy costs impact global industrial output.
Analysts currently project that Brent crude will average in the low-to-mid $90s for the remainder of 2026, though any escalation in regional hostilities could quickly push the price back toward the $100 mark.
Gold Surges as a Primary Safe Haven
Parallel to the energy crisis, gold has experienced a record-breaking rally, with prices exceeding $4,200 per ounce. This represents a year-on-year gain of nearly 40% despite the high volatility associated with the ongoing conflict. The surge is attributed to a combination of safe-haven demand and the inflationary pressures caused by elevated energy costs.
Investors are increasingly utilizing precious metals to hedge against currency instability and the unpredictable nature of prolonged warfare. Central bank purchases remain robust, reinforcing gold's position as an essential asset for institutional portfolios during periods of extreme geopolitical uncertainty. The current environment presents a complex landscape where balancing exposure to energy commodities with defensive positions in gold is becoming a primary strategy for navigating 2026 market dislocations.